After playing on goerli for the past couple of weeks, one thing is clear: Defifa games are going to be absurdly fun.
I've been helping build out defifa.net, a dApp for the Defifa protocol built on Juicebox (super alpha atm, fair warning). With the Defifa mainnet launch looming, I thought it timely to note some possible strategies that I've observed while playing.
Head up: I'm new to Defifa, so this is all pretty rudimentary thinking. I've only been playing games with 2-4 players, and it's mostly unclear how things will play out on mainnet. Should be fun though.
I'd suggest learning Defifa 101 before continuing: https://defifa.net/about.
Strategies
As a Defifa player, your goal is to make ETH.
Outcomes in traditional prediction markets are immutable and 'objectively true'.
But Defifa games have a twist: players must agree on the outcome. As we'll see, this allows for some crafty strategies to emerge.
Honest Abe
If you want to play with integrity, and are confident others will too, then the "Honest Abe" strategy is for you. It maximises one's return if one assumes one thing: the 'rules' of the game (written in plain English by the game's creator) are followed.
Mint tiers that meet some combination of the following criteria:
- The tiers you think represent the most likely outcome, based on the game's rules.
- The tiers with the least total mints.
More simply:
- I want to pick the tier that I think will win, but I need to also consider by the number of tier mints.
- I don't care about how many players there are in the tier. Only the number of times the tier has been minted.
Of course, I want to mint the tier that I think has the best chance of winning. But, for example, given two options I think have a similar chance of winning, I'll want to mint the tier with less total mints. This means I'll get more share of the pot if that tier wins.
The Russell
Russell Hantz, a name that will forever echo in the "Survivor" hall of fame. Infamously back-stabbing and blind-siding and gathering hidden immunity idols all the way to the Finals.
Enter: "The Russell" strategy.
This strategy ignores the game's rules altogether. It focuses on maximizing influence on the game's outcome: hording vote power.
To maximize voting power, mint the tier with the least players (unique addresses that have minted). Then, mint the tier with the next-least players. And keep going until you've got enough votes, or minted all tiers.
But, there's more.
Other player's have votes too, and you could get outvoted.
Don't let the tribe speak against you. Find the player/s with the most votes. Then, make sure you mint the same tiers as them. This decreases their voting power while giving you some too.
Therefore, your safest best is to mint all tiers. This is guaranteed to maximise voting power.
If you woke up feeling like a real asshole, spread your ETH out across multiple wallets and repeat the above. Individual wallets have a vote power ceiling: so, horizontally scale your operation.
The Bankman
The holy grail for those without a moral compass.
In (dis)honor of SBF, this stragegy combines the two previous strategies: maximise votes and maximize ETH.
Follow "The Russell", with one twist: double down on the tier with the least mints. In fact, one should mint as much of the least-minted tier as possible. This will dilute the other minters more and more, securing more of the bag.
If any of that sounds wrong, or you have other strategy ideas, come chat in the Defifa Discord: https://discord.gg/uPbqmbpQDw
Mainnet coming soon. But in the meantime, come play on Goerli: https://defifa.net.